Mega Evolution Base Set Pull Rates

First off, the good news! If you’re just looking to have a blast ripping packs, the Mega Evolution Base Set is fantastic. Seriously. If you felt the burn from some of the later Scarlet & Violet sets, this is a welcome change.

Why? Because the pull rates for the “everyday” hits have been noticeably “buffed.”

Here’s what the large-scale data (from folks who opened thousands of packs) tells us to expect:

• Double Rares (DR): These are your “bread and butter” hits, showing up in about 1 in 5 packs.
• Illustration Rares (IR): You’ll find one of these beauties roughly 1 in 9 packs. That’s a huge improvement from the 1-in-12 rate in previous sets!
• Ultra Rares (UR): These are popping up around 1 in 12 packs. This is also way better than the 1-in-15 we often saw before.
• Special Illustration Rares (SIR): This is where it gets tougher. You’re looking at odds of about 1 in 101 packs for one of these.

This means a single booster box is very likely to give you a satisfying stack of shiny cardboard. You can realistically expect to pull around 4 Illustration Rares and 3 Ultra Rares in one 36-pack box. This is why you’re hearing so much positive buzz from the community, with people saying their pulls feel “much more consistent.” It’s just… more fun!

The Wallet-Crushing Part

Alright, now for the bad news… and it’s rough. This is where The Pokémon Company hits you with an “It’s Super Effective!” move right in the bank account.

If you are a “master set” collector, I wish you luck. You’re gonna need it.

This set introduced a new, terrifyingly scarce rarity called “Mega Hyper Rare” (MHR). These are the two big gold chase cards, Mega Lucario ex #188 and Mega Gardevoir ex #187, (which is key to some of the most popular decks at the moment) and they have what analysts are calling “the hardest pull rates in Pokémon TCG history.“

The odds of pulling any MHR card are approximately 1 in 1,260 packs.

Let that sink in. To put it in perspective, you would need to open, on average, 35 booster boxes to find one. That’s almost six full cases of product. The odds of pulling a specific MHR (like just the Lucario) are even worse—about 1 in 2,520 packs, which is slightly harder than pulling the infamous “Moonbreon” from Evolving Skies.

This is exactly why you saw those cards trading for $500… $600… even $700+ raw (un-graded!) right when the set was released. The scarcity is extreme.

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So, What’s the Strategy?

So, how do you tackle this set without going broke? Here’s the play-by-play from one collector to another.

1. Embrace the “Crashing” Singles Market: Because the “good” hits (those IRs and URs) are so common, their prices on the secondary market are dropping fast. This is great news! You can complete most of the set by buying singles for cheap.
2. NEVER Chase the MHR: I’ll say it again: Do not chase the MHR cards by ripping packs. It is a statistical impossibility for almost everyone. You will save hundreds, if not thousands, of dollars by just buying the MHR card you want directly.
3. Consider the “Japan Variable”: English booster boxes are a total gamble. You are guaranteed nothing. It’s a high-risk, high-reward “Wild West” where you can get a “skunk box” with no big hits. Japanese booster boxes, on the other hand, have guaranteed hits to comply with national anti-gambling laws. A sealed Japanese Mega Evolution era box (like Inferno X or Mega Brave) guarantees you, at a minimum, 1 Super Rare (or better), 1 Item-specific SR, and 3 Art Rares. You get a predictable, stable, and fun opening experience every time.
4. The BIG Japanese Warning: This comes with a HUGE catch. Because of these guarantees, NEVER, EVER buy loose Japanese packs. A seller can easily “search” a box by opening packs until they find the one guaranteed SR, and then sell the remaining 20+ “dead” packs to unsuspecting buyers. If you go Japanese, only buy factory-sealed booster boxes.

Your Final Battle Plan

Here’s your quick summary for tackling the Mega Evolution set:

• FOR CASUAL FUN: This set is a BUY. Rip those English packs! The high rates for Illustration and Ultra Rares make it a super rewarding experience.
• FOR MASTER SETS: BUY SINGLES. Do not even try to pull those Mega Hyper Rares. The 1-in-1,260-pack odds mean you’re just lighting money on fire.
• FOR PREDICTABLE HITS: BUY SEALED JAPANESE BOXES. You get better quality, a guaranteed number of hits, and avoid the “skunk box” feeling of English.

Happy hunting! Go fill those binders.