Let’s be real for a second—is there anything quite like the sound of a fresh booster pack cracking open? That crisp snap of the foil, the smell of fresh ink, the split-second prayer to Arceus that you don’t pull your fifth duplicate of a common Pidgey? We’ve all been there.
With the release of Phantasmal Flames, the Pokémon TCG has officially dragged us kicking and screaming (happily) back into the era of Mega Evolutions. We’re talking Mega Charizard X ex breathing blue fire and Mega Gengar ex looking spookier than my bank account after a pre-order spree. But the big question on everyone’s mind isn’t just “how cool is the art?”—it’s “what are my actual chances of pulling the good stuff?”
We’ve crunched the numbers on thousands of packs so you don’t have to. We’re also going to stack these odds up against our Mega Evolution Base Set Pull Rates to see if TCG is being generous or stingy this time around.
The “Snack” Hits: Double Rares and Illustration Rares
First, the good news.
The “Double Rare” (ex) cards are dropping at a rate of 1 in 5 packs (20%).
This is exactly consistent with the Mega Evolution Base Set. Think of these like finding a decent potion in a video game—they aren’t the Master Ball, but they keep you in the game.
But the real flavor comes from the Illustration Rares (IR). These full-art beauties are showing up roughly 1 in 9 packs (~11%).
Again, this matches the generous “buffed” rates we loved in the previous set. It implies that Pokémon is trying to keep the “fun factor” high for casual openers. Even if you just grab a handful of packs, you have a solid 1-in-10 shot at something binder-worthy.
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Start Tracking Now — It’s FreeThe “Gym Leader Challenge”: Ultra Rares
Now, let’s turn up the heat. You want those Full Art Ultra Rares—the shiny, textured cards that make the regular ex cards look a bit flat.
In Phantasmal Flames, Ultra Rares are landing at approximately 1 in 12 packs (~8.3%).
Comparing this to the previous set, we are seeing consistency again. The Mega Evolution Base Set also sat at that sweet 1-in-12 spot (down from the grueling 1-in-15 of older eras). It feels balanced, like a gym battle that makes you sweat but doesn’t wipe your whole team. If you are hunting the Phantasmal Flames’ best chase cards, this is where the challenge begins.
The “Shiny Hunt”: Special Illustration Rares (SIR)
Here is where we separate the casual collectors from the “I eat instant noodles so I can buy cardboard” crowd. The Special Illustration Rares—specifically that jaw-dropping Mega Charizard X ex #125 alternate art—are the heavy hitters.
The Big Surprise: The data shows these elusive cards are hiding in about 1 in 80 packs (1.25%).
Believe it or not, this is actually better than the Mega Evolution Base Set, where SIRs were falling at a tougher rate of 1 in 101 packs (~0.99%). While 1.25% still sounds low, in the world of probability, that is a significant improvement. You are statistically more likely to pull the Charizard SIR here than you were to pull the Mega Lucario SIR from the last set.
Hunting for these still feels like trying to catch a Legendary in a Beast Ball, but the odds are slightly more in your favor this time.
Mega Hyper Rares
Finally, we have to talk about the Gold Hyper Rares.
Current data puts these at a staggering 1 in 1,260 packs (~0.08%).
If you remember the “Mega Hyper Rares” (MHR) from the previous set, you’ll recognize this number immediately. The odds haven’t budged. You could open a case of booster boxes and still not see the Gold Mega Charizard X ex. These cards are virtually ghosts. If you pull one, sleeve it, and immediately use a grading card profit calculator to see if it’s worth preserving in a slab, because you just hit the lottery.
Rip or Buy Singles?
So, what’s the play here?
If you love the thrill of the hunt and are wondering which sealed product is best value for money if you just wanna rip packs, Phantasmal Flames is a blast to open. The consistency of the lower rarities remains excellent, and the slightly improved SIR rate makes the “big chase” feel a tiny bit more achievable than the last set.
However, if you are strictly chasing the Gold cards, do your wallet a favor: buy the single. Those 0.08% odds are brutal, and your rent money will thank you later.
Happy hunting, trainers! May your pulls be fiery and your centering be perfect.
