I came across a Reddit thread the other day that crystallized something I’ve been feeling about the Pokémon TCG market for months. The post, titled “The illusion of liquidity,” sparked over 500 upvotes and hundreds of comments from collectors who are finally starting to question what we’ve all been telling ourselves: that our cardboard portfolios are as good as cash.
As someone who has been deeply embedded in the Pokémon TCG world for years, I’ve watched its evolution from a niche hobby into what many now consider an alternative asset class. The money that has poured in, the record-breaking sales, the sheer cultural and financial weight of it all—it’s been incredible to witness. We, as a community, are sitting on a mountain of perceived value.
But I’ve also been observing the market with growing unease. The conversations in Discord servers, on social media, and at conventions have shifted from the joy of collecting to discussions of “floors,” “ceilings,” and exit strategies. That Reddit thread forced me to confront a critical question: How real is the wealth we all see on paper?
My conclusion is stark: the market is operating under a dangerous illusion of liquidity, and a great de-leveraging is not a matter of if, but when.
A House of Cards Built on Hot Potato
The fundamental flaw in the modern collector’s mindset is comparing our assets to traditional financial instruments. As one Redditor put it perfectly: “When I sell stocks, a spread of 1 percent would piss me off. And I can move it within seconds… Pokemon takes way longer to sell and the 20-50% cut is insane.”
The Myth of Instant Cash-Out
In traditional markets, liquidity is guaranteed by market makers and institutional buyers. If you need to sell shares in a blue-chip company, there’s always a buyer, instantly. But as the original Reddit poster astutely observed: “There is no BlackRock in the Pokemon market who has infinite funds to scoop up assets when things look cheap.”
Our market is a fragile, peer-to-peer system where “the majority of transactions these days are flippers playing hot potato with other flippers.” I’ve witnessed this firsthand. Last year, I tracked a PSA 10 Umbreon VMAX from Evolving Skies as it moved between three different “hobby influencers” over three months, each transaction artificially inflating its perceived value. This wasn’t three unique collectors buying their grail card—it was a tiny circle of market players passing the same asset between them.
One Reddit commenter who works at a local card shop confirmed this reality: “The only people buying sealed is investors, vendors and resellers. Of all my transactions. Only 2 were actual collectors… The rest barely knew the hobby and just in it for money.”
Transaction Costs
Even in a bull market, the idea that “market price” equals what you’ll receive is fantasy. A Redditor who liquidated $40,000 worth of cards over five months revealed: “Even posting on FB selling at 80-85% market. You still get vendors, resellers trying to price it lower.” Another shared that local card shops routinely offer less than 70% of market value, “literally because this is a temporary market paradigm.”
When you factor in platform fees (13-15%), secure shipping, insurance, and the immense time spent negotiating with potential buyers, your realized gain plummets. This friction is a key indicator of an illiquid asset, and we’ve been systematically ignoring it. Understanding where to sell Pokémon cards and the associated costs becomes crucial when reality sets in. The harsh truth about Pokémon card trade 80 per cent value calculations reveals just how much collectors lose in each transaction.
Lessons from Other Bubbles
The Reddit thread was filled with ominous warnings from those who’ve seen similar collapses. One user shared his friend’s NFT disaster: when that crash came, “The buyers didn’t just offer less; they vanished entirely. The Discord servers fell silent. The marketplaces became a graveyard of listings with zero bids.”
Historical Parallels We’re Ignoring
A particularly insightful comment came from someone whose family lived through the sports card crash: “My dad and brother were both vendors in the early 80s… I saw many people who had basements full of sealed product that previously sold for $1,000 a case that they then could not offload for $100.”
The sports card market crash of the 1990s offers a sobering parallel—cards that were once valuable investments became virtually worthless almost overnight. The junk wax era of sports cards from 1987-1993 created massive oversupply that took decades to correct.
More recently, NFT trading volume fell by $14.5 billion in 2023, with OpenSea’s monthly volume dropping to just $170 million after previously handling billions.
Modern vs. Vintage Divide
Perhaps the most crucial insight from the Reddit discussion was about modern product oversupply. One commenter provided staggering statistics: “30.4 billion cards have been printed through the beginning of 2020… Since then, TPC has printed 44.6 billion cards. That means almost SIXTY PERCENT (60%) of all cards ever printed have been in the last five years.”
I firmly believe that hoarding modern sealed product is the single riskiest play in the entire hobby today. Vintage products possess unassailable scarcity—Base Set to early e-Series are historical artifacts with known, finite supply that decreases over time.
Modern products are the polar opposite. The print runs are colossal, and the hoarding unprecedented. To believe that a booster box from a set printed in the millions will follow the same trajectory as 1st Edition Base Set is to ignore fundamental economics. As one Reddit user warned: “The sheer amount of supply of modern that exists… when Pokemon cards suddenly stop being the hot thing, it will be a wake up call for a lot of people.”
Economic Reality Check
Multiple Reddit commenters highlighted broader economic concerns that make this bubble particularly dangerous. One astute observer noted: “Avg unemployment duration is currently 6 months, with no end to inflation in sight, and AI putting more people out of a job with each passing month… we are maybe 2-3 years out from people needing to liquidate en masse.”
Another added: “Millennials are the bulk of this hobby, and we are aging into middle age. Besides health concerns, family matters sometimes demand that things like pokemon be sold to provide more stability.”
The combination of economic pressure and life transitions creates what one commenter called “a perfect storm… hitting this hobby’s main demographic like a sack of bricks.”
The Nostalgia Factor is 404 not found
Perhaps most damning was this observation: “Kids can’t have formed good memories out of sets they were never able to open.” When children can’t access products due to scalping and inflated prices, what nostalgia will drive future demand? As another Redditor put it: “Most kids don’t get any Pokemon cards these days.”
This breaks the generational cycle that made vintage cards valuable. The current market is built on millennial nostalgia, but we’re actively preventing the next generation from forming those same emotional connections. The question of whether anything can stop the Pokémon scalpers becomes existential—if we don’t solve the accessibility crisis, we’re killing the hobby’s future. Recent reports show how automated bots can plunder an expansion release even before the product goes live, making the problem even worse.
This analysis isn’t a call to abandon the hobby—it’s a call for honest risk assessment. Multiple Reddit commenters who’ve successfully navigated previous downturns shared crucial insights.
Redefining Collection Strategy
The foundational question remains: “If the monetary value of this item went to zero tomorrow, would I still be happy to own it?” If the answer is no, you’re not a collector—you’re a speculator carrying immense hidden risk.
I focus on assets with asymmetric upside: items where scarcity is proven, not presumed. Vintage sealed products, rare trophy cards, and historically significant pieces. As one experienced collector noted: “I would rather have one truly rare item than one hundred modern booster boxes.”
Understanding what makes a Pokémon card valuable beyond market hype becomes critical for long-term survival. Factors like genuine scarcity, historical significance, and playability matter more than artificial inflation from speculation.
Learning from Experience
A Reddit user with over $1 million in cards shared this perspective: “If the market dropped 30–50% tomorrow, it would sting, but I’d still believe in the hobby and the community behind it… I’m not in a rush to sell.”
But critically, he added: “If you’re flipping for quick cash, a downturn will be brutal.”
For serious collectors holding high-value collections, questions about whether to insure your Pokémon card collection become paramount. When treating cards as financial assets, proper risk management is essential.
The Liquidity Reality Check
Perhaps the most practical advice came from someone actively selling: “Market was about 2450 – I got a ton of lowballs from skeezy flippers for 50-60 percent… I eventually found a guy who gave me 85 percent for the boxes, which I felt was fair.”
Even in today’s hot market, this collector took a 15% haircut on sealed product that’s considered highly liquid. Imagine those margins during a downturn. Learning how to avoid Pokémon card scams becomes crucial when desperation sets in during market downturns—both for buyers trying to find deals and sellers trying to offload quickly.
The Inevitable Correction
We must dismantle the toxic “diamond hands” culture that has infected our hobby from crypto and meme stocks. There’s no prize for holding rapidly depreciating assets to zero. As one Reddit commenter wisely noted: “They will move onto the next thing the second pokemon stops panning out.”
The signs are already appearing. Comments about Obsidian Flames and Paldean Fates hitting price walls, with sellers struggling to move product at inflated prices, show cracks forming in real-time. Recent product launches like the Phantasmal Flames drop fiasco demonstrate how quickly hype can turn to disappointment when collectors realize they’re chasing artificial scarcity.
Conclusion
The Reddit thread that sparked this analysis received over 500 upvotes because it articulated what many collectors are starting to feel but haven’t wanted to admit. The market we’ve built is fundamentally different from traditional investments, despite how we’ve been treating it.
As one commenter perfectly summarized: “A box of evolving skies is not a share of SPY. Its cardboard, its not nearly as rare as some of the actually rare vintage stuff, and when push comes to shove… liquidity will be a huge issue.”
The great de-leveraging isn’t a question of if—it’s when. Those who understand that collectible markets operate on entirely different principles than traditional financial markets will be positioned to weather the storm. Those who don’t will learn the hard way that perceived value and actual liquidity are very different things.The great sports card bubble of the 90s offers us a roadmap. When it arrives, the illusion of liquidity will shatter, revealing the true nature of what we’ve been holding all along: beautiful, nostalgic cardboard that’s only worth what someone is actually willing to pay for it.
